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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (7760)2/11/2004 6:05:04 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Don't know if you caught these comments this weekend (see bottom portion),
Message 19780330
but I covered half my position at 94.68, for about 6.5 bps profit, just based on the dramatic shift in the commercials position and also some moral hazard (yes, even I fear his irresponsibility)about Easy Al at these hearings. I think Easy is going to like $1.50 copper, $38 oil, and 400 mbf for 2 x 4's. That's good as those are just more items he can exclude. Thing is I think other people may start asking questions, although I sure didn't hear any along those lines today.

So I would really like to get short EDs even more at this level going into the 2/19 and 2/20 PPI and CPI releases, but I won't know where the commercials stand on today's important trading until after the close on Friday 2/20., and that's too late. Tomorrows COT release will give me a clue for part of the reaction back up, and that may be enough for me, if commercials are leaning short the ED again. If I can really get a clean look I may go for the Sept ED for the extra leverage. I expect about three or four rate increases between June and Sept, and a couple before June, maybe more if "surprise" inflation is as bad as I'm predicting.
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