Tensions Rise as Venezuela's Recall Decision Looms
Stratfor Summary
Venezuela's national electoral authorities will announce this
week if a referendum to recall President Hugo Chavez will be held
in 2004. However, since neither Chavez nor his opponents will
accept a ruling unfavorable to their respective interests,
Venezuela's political crisis quickly will intensify and more
violence likely will accompany it.
Analysis
Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) reportedly will
announce Feb. 13 whether President Hugo Chavez's opponents
submitted enough valid voter signatures to compel a referendum to
recall him. Whatever the CNE announces, neither Chavez nor his
opponents will ever concede defeat.
This means the struggle for supremacy between Chavez and his foes
could again erupt in deadly violence very soon. The last time the
president and the opposition clashed publicly -- in April 2001 --
at least 20 people were killed and Chavez was briefly toppled
before loyal military supporters put him back in the presidential
palace. Chavez won't be caught napping twice, however.
The president warned Feb. 8 on national television that if the
opposition doesn't respect the CNE's imminent ruling against a
recall referendum, he will order his "civilian and military
forces" to enforce the rule of law.
It is unclear how Chavez knows the CNE's final decision
beforehand. The body supposedly is independent, although three of
its five directors are believed to be Chavez supporters. One of
the three is CNE President Francisco Carrasquero, who lives
inside a military compound guarded by troops loyal to Chavez.
Opposition leaders fear the CNE will find a way to disallow the
recall referendum.
If the CNE rules that no referendum is legally or
constitutionally justified, the opposition will accuse Chavez of
hijacking the CNE. If the CNE does the unexpected and rules for a
recall referendum, Chavez and his supporters likely will cry
"fraud," charge that the opposition infiltrated and corrupted the
CNE and repudiate its decision. Either way, Venezuela's 46-year-
old representative democracy will never be the same.
Chavez appears to be seeking a confrontation, and some opposition
leaders appear willing to accommodate him. Late Feb. 10, Miranda
State Gov. Enrique Mendoza of the opposition group Democratic
Coordinator (CD) -- widely touted as a favorite potential
successor to Chavez -- announced the creation of a 17-member
Referendum Campaign Command. Mendoza also urged pro-recall voters
to participate in a Feb. 16 protest march that would end at the
CNE offices in downtown Caracas.
An eyewitness Stratfor source in Caracas said Feb. 11 that
civilian pro-Chavez Bolivarian Circle group members already have
taken up defensive positions surrounding CNE offices. If
government security forces don't keep the pro- and anti-Chavez
sides apart, violence will erupt almost immediately.
In effect, Chavez might be hoping for violent confrontation to
justify repressive measures that would complete his consolidation
of control over Venezuela. Some opposition leaders are keenly
aware of this possibility. Carlos Ortega -- president of the
Venezuelan Workers Confederation, who is now living in exile in
Costa Rica -- said Feb. 10 that he possessed "information" that
Chavez and his supporters within the Venezuelan National Armed
Forces (FAN) plan to stage a self-coup between Feb. 11 and Feb.
13 in order to prevent a referendum from taking place.
According to Ortega, the Chavez government plans to provoke
violence to justify declaring a "state of exception," suspending
the constitution and allowing the government to arrest anyone
viewed as a threat to stability and national security. Ortega
said the government has a lengthy list of political, business,
labor, media and military figures it plans to arrest.
Chavez agrees that a coup plot exists, but he claims his foes are
the plotters and that the Bush administration is funding them.
Neither Ortega nor Chavez offered any evidence for their
conspiracy accusations. However, the charges and countercharges
highlight the rising tensions and indicate that both Chavez and
his foes are feeling some desperation as the deadline for the
CNE's decision approaches.
Currently, Chavez controls the FAN, and his majorities in the
CNE, Supreme Court and National Assembly have neutralized the
opposition. However, if the president is forced into a recall
referendum, there is a strong likelihood he would lose and be
forced to resign -- an outcome he will not accept under any
circumstances.
For the opposition, the recall referendum is their last chance to
get rid of Chavez democratically. If it fails for any reason,
that's it. The opposition's only remaining choices would be to
meekly accept the rule of an unforgiving Chavez until new
elections are held in 2006 (if they are held), leave Venezuela or
overthrow him in a coup. However, should the latter happen, the
new government likely would not be recognized internationally as
legitimate. |
