fastmetals,
First just want to note to the thread that I'm taking a market vacation, I've got some projects to finish and then need a bit of R & R. Last week I began to move into a much higher cash position than usual, though I am still holding some core positions in NG and PM's, they are very small compared to normal. As a reflection of my market views, I usually try and take breaks when I feel that high cash positions are warranted. OTOH, I'm not traveling any great distances, so I can change my mind if incorrect on those views, which is always a possibility, ggg. Anyway, my posting will be reduced for a week to a few weeks.
fastmetals, I've also noticed that the price of imported goods has not increased at the same rate that the currency increases of the countries of origin would suggest. Just a couple weeks ago, I was looking for two imported items and there were none available in the US. The item is in demand, but I was looking for a particular type, which is not in as much demand, but is also "scarce". A distributor checked with a large importer who found the two items, the last two of the last production run, in inventory at the factory in Europe.
Last week I received both and still received a substantial discount from list or even market price, despite what would be considered a custom order, air freight, etc.
This was remarkable in several aspects. I don't believe this could have been done five years ago for a single consumer and a small distributor. The globalization aspect is quite obvious. Several decades ago, I ordered a similar item, very similar circumstances, but of US manufacture. I waited a year for delivery and had to pay a 30% premium over list price in the 70's. Conclusions from this small anecdote:
1 This is a buyers market, much better for consumers
2 Not a sellers market, squeeze on profit margins for
manufacturers
3 Full employment must be a motivation along with Capacity
Utilization, *example Toyota during other high yen times
4 Market share a consideration over profit, same *example
5 Improved manufacture, CNC machining, improved computers
"High Speed Machining" have increased quantity of
consumer goods. Other technology inputs also.
6 In 70's, consumers were more willing than factories
were able
7 Now factories more willing than consumers are able
8 #5 may have reduced c.#7, more output less high wage
workers in proportion to population.
9 An adjustment of relationship of #1 and #2 would seem
inevitable.
I extrapolated the anecdote of the "two items", as it seems to apply generally to most consumer goods I observe in the markets today.
PS Other conclusions/views are welcome, this is all I had time for.
fastmetals, glad you explained the true meaning of your handle, here I was guessing you were a daytrader of metals, vbg.
All the best,
Roebear |
