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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.32+2.7%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (10407)2/12/2004 9:58:45 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
The last figure I saw was $800m from Tufts. That included the cost of capital and the cost of failed drugs.

Certainly the biotechs don't spend anything like this - my guess is that $400m is closer to the mark. Of course a lot depends on the particular drug - it's a lot cheaper with a weird orphan indication where your total trials population is under 100 than it is for an anti-depressant or the like with total trials population approaching 10,000.

As to who is to blame, that is a hard question. I've often wondered what would happen if some small technically advanced country (someplace like Singapore or Israel) offered a "safety only" regime where new drugs could be sold once minimal safety had been demonstrated (no requirement that efficacy be demonstrated). This would be an intermediate position between the US regulation of drugs (very tough) and nutritional supplements (very lax).

Peter
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