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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (16622)2/12/2004 4:34:03 PM
From: Paul Senior   of 78666
 
Added a little more PERY to my small position.

They missed estimates:

"George Feldenkreis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer commented: "While we are pleased that we have been able to successfully integrate our recent acquisition of Salant and that we will be reporting both a record 4th quarter and fiscal year revenues and earnings, we are very disappointed that we were unable to achieve our planned $2.50 diluted earnings per share."

Which won't stop them though from making another estimate:

"....Initiatives, along with a healthier retail environment, should allow us to achieve an improved level of profitability for the coming fiscal year, we believe it is prudent to reduce our previous guidance to approximately $600 million in total revenue and earnings per share in the range of approximately $2.50 to $2.60 per fully diluted share."

Gee, as I write this, I'm not so sure about my decision now. Looks like even if management makes these numbers, and if the historical p/e should rise to near its upper area, the price (now about $22.23/sh would go to maybe $26-28/sh. (Psr number would indicate a somewhat higher evaluation.) Positives are that company is an aggressive acquirer, and Icahn is a major stockholder. Maybe management's estimate will turn out to be on the conservative side this time. (I would wish.)

Lot of iffs. And my record with these branded retailers isn't so great now (c.f. TSIC).
I'm in now for more, so I'll stick for a bit, but as I write this, I sense that PERY will not turn out to be a satisfactory investment in '04.

Paul Senior
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