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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: David Jones who wrote (17237)2/12/2004 9:50:44 PM
From: Elroy JetsonRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
I just watched your link to the UCLA Anderson forecast for December 2003.

They see the consumer as over-indebted with a dangerously low savings rate. They expect 2004 to be OK with increased business spending providing modest growth of no more than 3.5%. They do not see government statistics of 8.5% being reflected in the real economy.

Like George Soros UCLA anticipates a recession in 2005 caused by a decline in consumer spending.

Leamer's closing comment that Los Angeles will remain a great place to live in the future doesn't seem connected in any way to his forecast. Perhaps poor editing made the comment seem gratuitous.

The UCLA forecast does portend further declines in residential rents.

uclaforecast.com
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