DisplaySearch: Global TFT LCD panel supply to exceed demand by only 3.8% in 2004
Rebecca Kuo and Calvin Shao, Taipei; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com
Thursday 12 February 2004
Global TFT LCD panel supply will exceed demand by only 3.8% in 2004, said CE Wang, president of DisplaySearch’s Taiwan office, at a press conference in Taipei yesterday.
Wang estimates the gap at 5.1%, 5.2%, 3.3% and 2.0% for the four quarters of this year, respectively, reflecting the traditional dip in demand during the second quarter, which is the off-peak season for PCs, and rise in the second half.
Last October, the Chinese-language Economic Daily News quoted DisplaySearch president Ross Young as predicting global TFT LCD supply would exceed demand by only 5.5% in 2004.
Wang expects global large-size TFT LCD panel demand to reach 130 million units in 2004, adding that panel prices would gradually slide by US$3-5 per month despite tight supply of key components and rising demand.
He attributed the anticipated price fall to improved yield rates and capacity at the fifth-generation (5G) TFT LCD lines of Taiwanese, South Korean and Japanese makers, predicting higher gross margins for Taiwanese TFT LCD makers.
Wang expects global TFT LCD panel sales to grow 45.2% to US$46.6 billion in 2004, up from US$32.1 billion last year.
LCD monitors will rise to account for 57.4% of the global monitor market, estimated to reach 71 million units in 2004, surpassing CRT monitors for the first time. Last year, LCD monitors contributed 41.7% of monitor sales, Wang said, predicting that LCD monitors will represent 80% of monitor sales by 2007.
He anticipates small to medium-size TFT LCD panel sales to grow in 2004 and more than half of mobile phone panels to use TFT LCD technology by 2007.
Global LCD TV demand will reach nine million units in 2004, with MFT (multi-functional TFT) TV demand rising to one million units.
Wang also expects large-size notebook demand to rise to account for 20% of total panel demand as volume production at the 5G TFT LCD lines ramps up.
TFT LCD penetration rate
2003
2004
Monitor*
43%
56%
Notebooks as proportion of PCs
25%
28%
TV
3%
6%
Mobile phone/PDA
18%
28%
Source: DisplaySearch, compiled by DigiTimes, February 2004.
*Including LCD monitors and LCD PCs |
