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Technology Stocks : Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)

SIRI 20.14

-1.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Larry Brew who wrote (866)	2/14/2004 1:35:11 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) of 8420

Larry XM's dilution is essentially over; I think SIRI's isn't (although a lot depends on what they do with this last $250M). Worst case scenario, XM gets zip from the insurance companies -- they could issue $20M shares (6.5% dilution) and raise $400M to more than pay for future capex. I think this isn't going to happen. I think SIRI will end up at between 1.75 and 2.00 billion shares. I do not believe they just raised $250M to just have it in the bank -- they're going to spend it on something. They are trying to buy their way to victory with expensive content, and it is a huge gamble, and in my view, a potentially fatal (for the shareholders) mistake. While the RS deal looked good at first, they came back later in the day and said, "Well, there IS this little revenue sharing arrangement". Ouch. You KNOW the warrants were just gravy. The true potatoes were the revenue share. Just one crappy, desperate decision after another.

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