RtS, The market has been "retrenching" recently and many think it is going to take another "haircut" in the near future. Me, I am not so sure. Short term it obviously could do that, but I wonder if we are not going to have an upturn here sooner than later. I base this outlook on several factors. Let's start with the SOX.
If we go back to 3 Nov 03, which I need to remind you is 3 and 1/2 months ago, the SOX closed at 515.77. This past Friday, the SOX closed at 510.57 which is down 1 percent from the 3 Nov close. During this 3 and 1/2 month period the SOX has been up and down obviously, but let's face it, it has been pretty dull going. So with this period in mind, the following table of the Group is presented to show how the individual stocks in the Group have performed over that period - how much gain or loss at the bottom line and who are the winners and the losers.
- 11/3/03 2/13/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL
- CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG
EGLS 3.77 5.94 58 -0.30 22
HELX 18.80 25.82 37 1.27 20 15 1.36
FSII 6.31 8.47 34 0.41 21 20 1.03
SMTL 9.85 13.10 33 0.94 14 15 0.93
VECO 26.39 32.00 21 1.45 22 18 1.26
ATMI 24.68 28.02 14 1.21 23 18 1.29
LTXX 15.00 16.80 12 0.91 18 18 1.05
TER* 24.24 25.82 7 1.44 18 15 1.20
ASML 18.37 19.52 6 0.99 20 14 1.46
COHU 20.97 20.26 -3 1.20 17
KLIC 15.44 14.29 -7 1.42 10 18 0.58
DPMI 24.19 22.30 -8 -0.08 25
LRCX 29.79 27.43 -8 1.41 19 20 0.97
KLAC* 59.19 54.34 -8 2.38 23 20 1.13
PHTN 39.35 35.36 -10 1.53 23 25 0.92
PLAB 22.07 19.63 -11 1.07 18 18 1.05
AMAT* 24.56 21.77 -11 0.96 23 20 1.13
CYMI 48.64 42.03 -14 2.40 18 26 0.69
WFR 11.86 9.92 -16 0.82 12 10 1.27
BRKS 26.78 22.00 -18 1.35 16 14 1.16
MTSN 14.98 12.10 -19 1.00 12 20 0.61
CMOS 16.78 12.75 -24 0.80 16 15 1.06
NVLS* 43.94 33.26 -24 1.56 21 20 1.09
UTEK 34.54 25.55 -26 1.30 20 30 0.66
ASYT 20.14 10.91 -46 0.30 36 20 1.82
TOTALS 600.63 559.39 -7 27.74
SOX-X 515.77 510.57 -1
COMPQX1967.70 2053.56 4
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX
At the bottom line, the Group is down 7 percent, the SOX down 1 percent and the NASDAQ is up 4 percent. That type of performance is not the usual - there is a "divergence" between the SOX and the NASDAQ. Also, there is a big divergence between the top and bottom of the list with EGLS up 58 percent and ASYT down 46 percent.
Now lets combine that table with looking at the earnings picture on 11/3 and 2/13. The table below shows what the earnings outlook was on 11/3 vs what it looks like today and the difference between the 2.
- DATA FROM FIRST CALL
- 11/03/03 02/13/04
- EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG
SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR
AMAT 0.13 0.46 0.51 0.96 0.38 0.50
ASML -0.33 0.41 0.60 0.99 0.93 0.58
ASYT -1.02 0.50 -1.25 0.30 -0.23 -0.20
ATMI -0.19 0.42 0.67 1.21 0.86 0.79
BRKS -1.56 0.24 0.50 1.35 2.06 1.11
CMOS -1.49 -0.38 -0.23 0.80 1.26 1.18
COHU 0.01 0.58 0.59 1.20 0.58 0.62
CYMI -0.32 0.89 1.33 2.40 1.65 1.51
DPMI -2.53 0.58 -2.71 -0.08 -0.18 -0.66
EGLS -1.89 -1.00 -0.85 -0.30 1.04 0.70
FSII -0.23 0.39 -0.25 0.41 -0.02 0.02
HELX -0.11 0.45 0.91 1.27 1.02 0.82
KLAC 0.91 1.74 1.12 2.38 0.21 0.64
KLIC -1.09 0.19 1.14 1.42 2.23 1.23
LRCX 0.32 1.00 0.43 1.41 0.11 0.41
LTXX -0.46 0.44 -0.05 0.91 0.41 0.47
MTSN -0.41 0.22 0.49 1.00 0.90 0.78
NVLS 0.21 0.71 0.83 1.56 0.62 0.85
PHTN 0.56 1.23 0.71 1.53 0.15 0.30
PLAB -0.20 0.73 0.58 1.07 0.78 0.34
SMTL -0.34 0.14 0.35 0.94 0.69 0.80
TER -0.59 0.48 0.96 1.44 1.55 0.96
UTEK 0.21 0.75 0.67 1.30 0.46 0.55
VECO 0.14 0.61 0.77 1.45 0.63 0.84
WFR 0.50 0.61 0.67 0.82 0.17 0.21
TOTAL -9.77 12.39 8.49 27.74 18.26 15.35
A tremendous improvement at the bottom line, and for most individual stocks as well, between the 2 dates. What does this all mean? I don't know, but when you combine this with the fact that order input for the Group has just begun to move upward as shown by Gottfrieds charts, earnings estimates should continue to rise at a "fast clip" as we move forward in time. This will drive already low PE's and PEG's even lower than they are now. This should be a good environment for further price appreciation going forward - the big question is - when do we start on that upward move and do we go further down before the Group starts on the comeback trail.
Don |
