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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 337.35

-1.5%

Jan 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13352)	2/15/2004 4:11:15 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95743

This post is similar in nature to the last post on the Group, but it addresses the SOX. First of all the table below shows the period of 11/3 03 to 2/13/04 for the SOX. - 11/3/03 2/13/04 FST CALL NEXT FST CALL - CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT NXT YR YEAR LNG TRM SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE EARN PE GROWTH PEG XLNX 33.30 41.51 25 1.11 37 24 1.56 MOT 13.84 17.22 24 0.62 28 10 2.78 BRCM 33.66 38.63 15 1.08 36 30 1.19 LSI 9.49 10.51 11 0.47 22 19 1.18 MU 14.75 15.73 7 0.66 24 18 1.32 TER* 24.24 25.82 7 1.44 18 15 1.20 MXIM 50.06 52.79 5 1.55 34 25 1.36 ALTR 21.30 22.33 5 0.73 31 23 1.36 TXN 29.93 30.77 3 1.29 24 20 1.19 STM 27.22 26.69 -2 1.26 21 19 1.11 LLTC 43.80 42.25 -4 1.22 35 22 1.61 AMD 15.93 14.94 -6 0.59 25 15 1.69 TSM 11.47 10.63 -7 0.69 15 25 0.62 KLAC* 59.19 54.34 -8 2.38 23 20 1.13 NSM 42.82 38.95 -9 1.83 21 16 1.33 AMAT* 24.56 21.77 -11 0.96 23 20 1.13 INTC 34.04 30.14 -11 1.47 21 15 1.37 NVLS* 43.94 33.26 -24 1.56 21 20 1.09 TOTALS 533.54 528.28 -1 20.91 SOX-X 515.77 510.57 -1 COMPQX1967.70 2053.56 4 Again, just like the Group, there is a very wide swing between the top and bottom stock in the table. XLNX is up 25 percent while NVLS is down 24 percent over this period. KLAC, AMAT and NVLS have really been a big anchor on the SOX over this period with losses of 8, 11 and 24 percent respectively. The next table shows the earnings estimates at the 2 points of 11/3 and 2/13, and the difference between the 2 points. - DATA FROM FIRST CALL - 11/3/03 02/13/04 - EARNINGS EST EARNINGS EST EARNINGS CHG SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR CURR YR NEXT YR ALTR 0.39 0.52 0.57 0.73 0.18 0.21 AMAT 0.13 0.46 0.51 0.96 0.38 0.50 AMD -0.89 0.19 0.37 0.59 1.26 0.40 BRCM 0.46 0.69 0.94 1.08 0.48 0.39 INTC 0.81 1.15 1.25 1.47 0.44 0.32 KLAC 0.91 1.74 1.12 2.38 0.21 0.64 LLTC 0.94 1.14 0.97 1.22 0.03 0.08 LSI -0.07 0.24 0.31 0.47 0.38 0.23 MOT 0.21 0.43 0.46 0.62 0.25 0.19 MU -0.16 0.72 -0.01 0.66 0.15 -0.06 MXIM 1.13 1.43 1.18 1.55 0.05 0.12 NSM 1.06 1.42 1.40 1.83 0.34 0.41 NVLS 0.21 0.71 0.83 1.56 0.62 0.85 STM 0.44 0.85 0.81 1.26 0.37 0.41 TER -0.59 0.48 0.96 1.44 1.55 0.96 TSM 0.32 0.51 0.56 0.69 0.24 0.18 TXN 0.42 0.80 0.94 1.29 0.52 0.49 XLNX 0.65 0.88 0.75 1.11 0.10 0.23 TOTAL 6.37 14.36 13.92 20.91 7.55 6.55 Another very good performance over the period shown, but not good enough to move the SOX forward with a loss of 1 percent. Also, in reference to the top table, note that INTC is in next to last place with an 11 percent loss - one of the big players in the NASDAQ not doing well.

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