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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 351.08+2.3%Jan 27 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (13360)2/15/2004 9:50:58 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 95776
 
I have to say that the analyst speak doesn't make sense to me. I also just read the AMAT thread and I side with Cary on this issue. I'm not sure how analysts view the market but getting sequential order growth in the 20s and 30s percentage ranges is absolutely incredible growth. Even from the bottom of the order cycle, this type of sequential order growth is completely unsustainable and for the analysts to "cry" about only 2 more quarters of "meaningful" growth is the biggest bunch of crap I've read in a very long time. I would have a little more respect if these guys and gals stated that the order growth being seen now is stratospheric and that the SCE industry would be the best stock bets in town if they could achieve 5% sequential order growth for the next 3 or 4 years. The compounding alone would make many of these companies about 1 to 5 times the size they are currently (based on some companies getting more of the business then others).

Your PEG lists need to be taken with caution, since they imply expected earnings and expected growth rates which have yet to be substantiated. But if the SCE industry can see anything near the growth that CSFB is putting out, then I just can't see how anyone will miss out by putting money into the likes of AMAT. Sure, there may be a better entry point, given the gyrations of the market, but getting a 1 PEG out of AMAT who's order growth may stabilize at much higher revenue run rates looks like a winning bet to this observer.
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