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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.71

+0.4%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who started this subject	2/16/2004 9:08:17 AM
From: bio_kruncher	Read Replies (3) of 52153

Peter's SEPR guessing. I am quite interested in following thru with Peter's suggestion and so will volunteer to collect and subsequently summarize the results back to the board. as Peter wrote: A. What are probabilities of the following Estorra outcomes by the PDUFA date at month end: 1. Approval with short term label 2. Approval with long term label 3. Approvable 4. Not approvable 5. No decision B. What would be the price move associated with each of these outcomes? For B. how about stock price at the first close of trading after announcement? So for example, an entry would look like. 1. Approval short 0 2. Approval Long 90% $50 3. Approvable 10% $40 4. Not Approvable 0 5. No action 0 % should add to 100. No need for a price for 0% items. I am open to discussion for alternatives otherwise I am willing to collect PMs until say Wed. and will summarize for Thursday.

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