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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 56.71

+0.4%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: bio_kruncher who wrote (10448)	2/16/2004 11:56:12 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Thanks bio_kruncher. One issue is that item no. 3 (approvable) not only covers a multitude of results but is (in my view) also the most likely of these outcomes. I'd suggest we refine it something like as follows: 3A. (Best approvable) - indications are that approval will be routine, with a short review cycle. 3B. (Good approvable) - also routine, but no clues on review cycle and/or some minor unresolved issues 3C. (Unclear approvable) - significant unclear issues remain. 3D (Bad approvable) - additional trials (or similar) needed. This doesn't address the additional short vs long term label issues - presumably we'd likely only get hints of this. Comments on the above categorization attempts are welcome. Notice that the options market is also giving us its version of the likely outcome. The implied volatility smile (or smirk) for the March options is quite asymmetrical, with higher implied volatilities for low strike prices than for higher ones. (Best described as a twisted smile. <g>) I have to think if I can figure a way to go backwards from these implied volatilities to derive the price distribution that is being predicted. Peter

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