Biogen Message Board - Msg: 19814675

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 187.65

+0.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1542)	2/17/2004 2:50:03 AM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1686

GS: Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E $1.00, 2004E $1.49 Outperform/Neutral (BIIB) $44.41 Our meeting with management of BIIB yesterday confirmed our positive view. We maintain our Outperform rating based on (1) an increasingly visible pipeline with Phase III data on Antegren ($1B potential), Rituxan in rheumatoid arthritis ($1B) and oral Fumarate for psoriasis in the next 12-15 months (2) solid growth of Rituxan and Avonex and (3) relatively attractive valuation. BIIB shares are trading at 30x our 2004 EPS or PEG of 1.5 versus 36x and 1.7 for the group, respectively. We estimate the intrinsic value of BIIB to be $33/share, which implies that the value of the pipeline, including 3 new products/indications in Phase III development with combined potential of over $2B, is attractive at $10/share. The risks include slower sales, development failures, reimbursement cuts and generic competition. Our coverage view remains Neutral.

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