Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: gregor_us who wrote (126)	2/17/2004 12:07:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Heinz on US equities last week's AAII poll has seen its bear percentage shrink to 15% as well - similar to the II figure. also, still no put buying in evidence, and volatility premia ( mostly a measure of risk perception ) remain incredibly low. however, when i said last week that NO-ONE is looking down, i hadn't yet seen the latest CoT report, which contained some ammunition for the bulls: big speculators hold a large net short position in the spoos. note however that the commercial hedgers are net short as well, albeit only by a token amount ( i.e., they look to be neutral ) . the other side of the trade is inhabited exclusively by small traders, however, since the reportable limit is 1,000 contracts, you'd be considered 'small' with a 900 contracts position as well ( which would require you to put up over $31 million in initial margin ) . also, i've noticed that the non-reportables in the spoo have ceased to be a contrary indicator about 1 year ago. i'm at a loss as to why, but it's an empirical fact.

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