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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (168)2/17/2004 10:29:20 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
The Economist has an R-word index, although I'm not a current subscriber, it is essentially at zero.

This index is a very good predictor of recessions; but only about 1 or 2 months before they start. It is sort of like using the inverted yield curve to predict recessions. By the time the curve inverts, everyone knows a recession is likely. In other words both methods are useless.

Besides the coming recession (later this year or in 2005) will look different than most typical business cycle recessions.

Best to all!
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