Edwards is drawing support from moderates:
Edwards’ Strong Second-Place Showing
Edwards appears to have emerged as the more moderate alternative to Kerry. While a large segment of the primary electorate in each state has been strongly anti-Bush – and has largely thrown its support to Kerry – another, but smaller portion has been expressing more moderate views, and these voters have been supporting Edwards. This moderate appeal may have been especially helpful in Wisconsin’s open primary, in which nearly four of every ten voters casting a ballot in the race called themselves independent or Republican. Edwards won these groups handily.
In each primary Edwards has appealed to the party’s ideological conservatives, and Wisconsin proved to be no different. Thirty-seven percent of conservatives voted for Edwards, while only 30 percent supported Kerry. In addition, while only 12 percent of voters said they are satisfied with the Bush administration, Edwards carried 50 percent of those voters, compared to 23 percent for Kerry.
Edwards also benefited from more upbeat views of the country on specific issues. Among the 17 percent of voters who described the national economic condition as good or excellent, Edwards received 39 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 27 percent. And among those who approve of the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq (30 percent of the primary electorate), Edwards beat Kerry by 9 points.
Voters whose own personal financial situations are positive also broke for Edwards. Edwards drew strong support from the highest income voters, as well as voters who said their financial situations have improved over the past four years. Among this 21 percent of the electorate, Edwards beat Kerry by seven points.
Despite his success with those voters experiencing good economic times themselves, Edwards’ message of bad economic times in general is demonstrating some resonance.
Fifty-four percent of Edwards’ voters cited the economy and jobs as the top issue in deciding their vote, and it was the top issue overall – 41 percent of all voters cited it as the most important issue in their choice. In addition, his stand on international trade may have helped him marginally in Wisconsin. Nearly three-quarters of primary voters said they believe international trade costs more jobs in Wisconsin than it creates, and among these voters, Edwards polled close to Kerry.
Much of Edwards’ support also came from voters deciding whom to support over the course of the final week of the campaign. Among those voters who decided in the final week of the campaign, Edwards received an impressive 45 percent of the vote, to Kerry’s 30 percent. And among voters deciding on Sunday and Monday, when the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel released an endorsement of Edwards, Edwards received 53 percent of the vote.
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