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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (277642)2/19/2004 3:39:45 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Date: Thu Feb 19 2004 14:36
trotsky (Iraq) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
i haven't mentioned Iraq in quite some time. still, if you recall my posts before the war, my predicitons have by and large come true ( the major one was: 'it will be easy to invade...the troubles will begin AFTER the invasion' ) .
in light of recent events, i'll make another one: it is often said that the USUK occupation force 'must' stay there in order to avert the chaos that might break out if they leave ( i'm not quite sure why what is happening now doesn't yet qualify as 'chaos' ) , specifically, it is feared that a civil war might break out. my prediciton is that a civil war will break out ANYWAY, and the occupiers will be caught in the middle. the deaf playing it by ear in Iraq will look even more incompetent iow. - they don't understand what they have wrought. of course, i may be wrong, and the slide toward civil war may yet be averted by dint of a miracle, but i frankly doubt it - the signs all point to that outcome. in fact, there is already a low level civil war in progress...and the parties to that conflict don't talk to each other, since one of them has currently no discernible political structure ( the Sunnis ) , and even those that have at last a titular leadership ( the Shia clerics and the Kurdish communists ) have officially no political power - that rests with the occupiers, who apparently don't know what they're up against.
an 'interesting times' situation in the Chinese curse sense.
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