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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.85

-4.5%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (10474)	2/19/2004 5:40:18 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (2) of 52153

The BIIB/ELN divergence continues. Peter pointed out that BIIB was moving disproportionately to ELN. That divergence has continued and even expanded. Two reasons have been given to support a greater than share-proportionate (93%) move in ELN. (Reduced financial risk - Peter) (Avonex cannibalization by Antegren for BIIB, FredHayes) PRE 2/18/2004 2/19/2004 BIIB 44.25 53.22 58.88 Gain 8.97 5.66 ELN 9.8 11.78 13.33 Gain 1.98 1.55 Proj G 8.39 5.29 Shortfall 6.41 3.74 Cum Shortfall 10.15 BIIB shares 327.6 ELN shares 350.43 Adj %93.49% ELN has in these two days only moved 26% of what we would project if it were performing in line with the relative shares outstanding and is now fully 10 points behind where it should be. So either we have a serious mispricing by the market (either BIIB or ELN) or our understanding of the situation is faulty. Anyone see a good reason for the divergence? ij Message 19820538 ** Message 19820775

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