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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (316)2/20/2004 10:30:52 AM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (3) of 116555
 
Mish: I Don't Know How to Trade Futures.

My learning curve has not reached that point. Sure, I understand what you are doing with the Eurodollars conceptually.

In my house there are two accounts. There's the family account which is spread across several countries--and then there's my own account, which is exclusive to the US. In the former I have built up positions in NZ Govt Bonds over the last 3 years. The bonds have hardly been hurt at all by the recent rate rise, or the threat of more,--the strong NZD and the strong balance sheet of the govt keeps prices of bonds high. As I've remarked before, when trying to understand what OZ and NZ Central Bankers will do--one has to release oneself from US-centric perceptions--and get into a whole new world. The RBNZ absolutely does not want to raise interest rates. There is already political heat on the govt because of the exchange rate pushing to .7000. Farmers and exporters--which are ALL members of govt supported collectives, are protected by hedging using their own money and money the govt lends them. But "my guy" in Auckland tells me they were hedged only to the .7000 level.

OZ is a different story. Still an export economy yes but also a financial center and a stronger currency is *less* painful for them. In general most NZ and OZ Govt bonds are trading too far above par--even with the threat of future rate rises--for me to get interested.

There just is so little in the global landscape that interests me. Obviously, I must learn about futures trading...should I read a book?
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