SEPR individual prediction posts
No one objected so I am posting all.
sorry if it offends any one. if so I'll gladly refund your entry fee
From: Richard Harmon
1. Approval short 85% $25
2. Approval Long 15% $50
3. Approvable 0% $15
4. Not Approvable 0% $12
5. No action 0% $20
Not a shareholder, you can use my name. Thanks for doing this!
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From: J.D. Kelley
Modified response per Peters suggestion
1. Approval with short term label 12.5% $35
2. Approval with long term label 0% $50
3. Approvable 75% $30
3.A Best Approvable (7.5%) $36
3.B Good Approvable (17.5%) $36
3.C Unclear Approvable (40%)$26
3.D Bad Approvable (10%) $26
4. Not approvable 7.5% $17.50
5. No decision 5% $21
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From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL
BK,
Feel free to include my name
1 - 10% $30
2 - 0%
3 - 70% *$30
4 - 15% $18
5 - 5% $20
* I am assuming that the "approvable" is a clean one, no additional studies needed just working out the label.
Also of interest will be whether they get a Class I (2 months) or Class II (6 months) review. I would place a 90% probability on a Class II. As I understand we will not know this by the PDUFA - 3/1.
ij
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From: software salesperson
Sepr
I’ve never invested in this company nor listened to any of its conference calls.
Since some of its most ardent supporters here state that mgmt. plays fast and
loose with the truth, it’s not my kind of company. So, I wouldn’t take a word
they say at face value. On the other hand, their purported arrogance is not a
negative for me.
With only non-company released info to rely on, I believe the meeting will more
than likely have a bad result for sepr for these reasons:
(i) pfe’s decision to partner with nbix,
(ii) the unclarity surrounding the previous fda extension, and
(iii) mgmt.’s seeming confusion with fda processes.
In addition, these quotes, if accurate, do not bode well :
“Southwell agrees that Estorra is important to Sepracor's long-term plans but
insists the company will move on, should Estorra be rejected or delayed again.
Several other drugs are in Sepracor's long-term development pipeline, he said.” ;
"It is by no means the most important drug in our pipeline," Southwell said. - -
arrogant people don’t talk in this way; so, he’s either changed his stripes,
feigning humility, subconsciously very concerned, or consciously signaling
deflection( my pick) .
slightly OT:
"The approximately 940 new jobs would either focus on supervising or handling
direct sales of Estorra, with about 140 positions based in Massachusetts at the
drug development company's Marlborough headquarters. Sepracor chief financial
officer David Southwell says the remaining 800 would handle Estorra sales and
promotion throughout the country." - - they need 140 corporate people to
"supervise" 800 salespeople??
Thus,
Approval short 0%
Approval long 0%
Best approvable 20% 25
Good approvable 0%
Unclear approvable 5% 19
Bad approvable 15% 16
Not approvable 50% 10
No decision 10% 21
sales
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From: fredlhayes
Here goes my guesses wrt SEPR:
Approvable 90 percent:
3A. (Best approvable) - indications are that approval will be routine, with a short review cycle. 50 percent; $35
3B. (Good approvable) - also routine, but no clues on review cycle and/or some minor unresolved issues. 15; $30
3C. (Unclear approvable) - significant unclear issues remain. 15; $21
3D (Bad approvable) - additional trials (or similar) needed. 10; $18
Not approvable 10 percent; $15
Weighed value $28.45
thanks for doing this,
fred hayes
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From: Icebrg
As Peter has moved the goalposts somewhat, I have to make the following amendment to my original post.
3A (Best approvable) - 20 %
3B (Good approvable) - 60 %
3C (Unclear approvable) - 10 %
3D (Bad approvable) - 5 %
No changes to my price assumptions. I doubt however that the company will let us know much in the case of 3C and 3D.
Erik
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From: rkrw
BK,
Just a repeat of my public post, amended the numbers a little bit.
My outlook:
*Approvable pending label: 50%, stock jumps to >30
*Approvable new animal studies needed: 20%, $20+
*Approvable, new human studies needed 20%, Stock drops to high teens-$20
*Not approvable: 10%, mid high teens
Long term label: 1%, next to no chance imo.
I'm not going to worry about review cycle. sepr keeps changing their mind on what it means, what they expect and how its communicated. What matters to me is a clean approval, no new trials needed and a 2004 launch. Anything less than that is a negative outcome.
Price est are within first week post decision.
Further projections for 12/31/03
*Final approval by 9/30: $40+
*Not approved this year: $20+
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From: Rocky9
My guesses:
1. Approval with short term label - 25% - 38
2. Approval with long term label - 5% - 46
3. Approvable - 50% - 32
4. Not approvable - 15% - 10
5. No decision - 5% - 20
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From: Biomaven
SEPR predictions:
1. Approval short: 13%, $38
2. Approval long: 2%, $45
3A Best Approvable: 15% $35
3B Good Approvable: 50% $32
3C Unclear approvable: 13% $24
3D Bad approvable: 5% $18
4: Not approvable: 2%, $14
Expected value: $31.39
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bio_kruncher
1. Approval short term label 20% 47
2. Approval long term label 0%
3. Approvable 70% 35
4. Not approvable 10% 18
5. No decision 0%
3A Best Approvable: 20% $42
3B Good Approvable: 35% $37
3C Unclear approvable: 10% $22
3D Bad approvable: 5% $19 |
