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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 333.30

+0.9%

Jan 13 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (13434)	2/20/2004 11:31:12 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95713

It's all about momentum and the major firms can cause it to swing the exact opposite way of the underlying trend at any time. We all saw them start to pound the table a few weeks ago, so this latest dump on good news shouldn't come as any surprise. Especially in light of the huge moves made in the sector. You can look back at RtS's and my TA posts to see that we could dump a lot (10%+) without violating the major up trend in place on the charts. Don't think for a moment the major firms aren't looking at similar charts! They count on the masses to trade off the headline, not the details! Like the BtB. OH MY GOD, THE BtB dropped from last month!!! Who cares that billings and bookings jumped substantially from last month? The only thing that matters is the headline! What's different about the sector today over last week or last month? Valuations are getting more reasonable as earnings growth is finally starting to improve. This, however, has nothing to do with the sector's momentum and Fitzy and friends could care less about the underlying fundamentals. They are momentum guys and they want to keep as many people looking in the wrong direction as they can. My guess is that the larger firms will be loading up as we drop. Corrections are healthy and we haven't seen a decent one in a while. It hurts if you have recently positioned yourself to be long, otherwise, it's really no big deal. One other major factor is that today is expiration. I think we'll learn a lot more about where the market is headed next week, as opposed to today. Let's see whether they keep the downward pressure on through the end of the month. There's a lot of data to digest. CPI rising, unemployment appears to be improving, earnings estimates are trending positively. There are a lot of reasons to dump here, vbg!

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