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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 256.89-1.2%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: Math Junkie who started this subject2/21/2004 6:51:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (3) of 25522
 
FWIW: I just listened to a replay of the CMOS earnings conference call. A particularly interesting exchange took place during the Q and A session. An analyst said, "You have had 5 consecutive quarters of increased bookings and during the last cycle you had 7." "You said in your prepared remarks that you thought this upturn 'had legs'." How much more upturn do you expect?" The CEO corrected the last cycle number to 8 consecutive quarters and thought that they would achieve at least 10 consecutive quarters this cycle. He also suggested that the increases in previous quarters were so small as to be noise and that this cycle just had its first of the 10 up quarters.

So, this is the first data point I have heard for a recovery that peaks beyond 2005. 10 quarters takes CMOS to the quarter ending July 2006. The "at least" 10 or 10 "easily" which I think he actually said, puts the possible peak at the end of 2006 or into 2007.
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