Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 256.89

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Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9022)	2/22/2004 3:49:35 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Cary, Thanks for that input from the CMOS earnings conference earnings call. I can certainly agree with the CMOS CEO about his comments: <<He also suggested that the increases in previous quarters were so small as to be noise and that this cycle just had its first of the 10 up quarters.>> The CEO's observation is the way I would read the data. I think the table presented in post Message 19814189 proves his point. If you look at the Bookings data from October 2002 thru September 2003, the monthly number has been "bouncing along" in the 700M+ category over that period. That is just "noise" IMO. In October 2003, the start of the quarter, Bookings started its recent upward movement going from 871M to 923M in November, to 1100M in December(just corrected on Thursday this past week to 1181M) and the new preliminary number for January of 1224M. Message 19833815 So I would agree with the CMOS CEO - we have had our first quarter of real gain in Bookings since "bouncing around" in the noisy trough period of the previous 4 quarters. We have also seen a promising continuation of that recovery cycle based on the higher Bookings number for January, which can be thought of as the start of the 2nd quarter of recovery. With the present low interest rates expected to continue for a relatively long period of time, Bookings should be expected to increase as we continue forward. Don

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