Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who started this subject	2/22/2004 9:24:55 PM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) of 116555

"ticking time bomb indeed!" WE continue to see the great and growing weakness in the economy, this last week housing starts PLUNGED 8%, retail sales negative for the month, while the CPI bursted forward putting a squeeze on the debt heavy US worker whose purchasing power is being halted by poor wage growth in a jobless recovery. Both auto and home sales are falling along with consumer confidence. We also saw an unexpected decline in the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index. Further the congress and administration is coming under attack for promoting the outsourcing of US jobs and the jobs forecast of 2.6 million is now just a 'goal'. The free trade as foreign aid chickens are coming home to roost. Economic forecasts cannot hold on much longer to the fantasy that GDP this quarter will even equal let alone exceed that of last quarter, growth is falling relatively quickly now from 8-4 to almost nihl in the first quarter of this year, maybe even negative after proper inflation is taken. Last qtr's 4 rate will almost certainly be lowered due to the large trade deficit. There is one more round of stimulus to come in the next few months, due last years tax cuts, then thats it. We will be faced with rising government and trade deficits and an exhausted spent out consumer and policy makers who have no options. The bomb has gone off IMHO. Like a fart you can't smell it yet. --------------------------------------------------------- By "federal reserves", an 83 year-old on Zeev's thread... (I like his humor.)

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