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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 304.92

-0.1%

Dec 30 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (13501)	2/23/2004 11:19:40 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 95652

BIG difference between March 2000 and today is bookings at chip makers. I believe key components were triple booked as lead times were very long. A key I (and most of us here) missed in 2000 was fab capacity that was before unavailable opened up in August 2000. I wish I had an insider at a fabless chip company who could tell me lead times for various processes. When you see lead times drop like a rock, I'd be tempted to sell half my holdings as it would mean that enough capacity is due on line soon or end demand is dropping. When companies triple book, that capacity can show up very quickly. I betcha we could make a nice living surveying the chip companies on a weekly basis to see what lead times they offer for each of their processes then somehow plotting total capacity for each process vs time. Complicating the mix today is companies like UTEK and AMAT make good money from flat panel display makers. This will have a different cycle than the telecom and internet build-out that fooled everyone. Kirk

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