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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (46581)2/24/2004 5:48:46 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Today's Report: I am in Guangzhou, about to investigate something I know nothing about, hanging out by lonesome, and feeling adventurous.

<<..."The hell wit the cheese I just want outa the trap!">>

It certainly is murderous out there. I am very afraid, and so we must survive so that we can fight another day ;0)

I, as you, have faith in our respective scripts, but when the theater catches fires, it is perhaps best to put down the scripts and run, fast, silent, into the darkness, away from the screaming.

I continued selling the unmentionable stock today, and I am very close to getting clear away from the beast :0)

Equity is now 15.6% of G.Asset.

Currency is grinding against currency, and I do not wish to be ground up. I did some major heavy airlifting of AUD, CAD, and EUR troops to, of all fiat, USD!

Cash is now 41.3% of G.Asset (AUD @ 17.9%, GBP @ 2.6%, CAD @ 4.3%, EUR @ 2.7%, HKD @ 1.3%, YEN @ 4.4%, and USD @ 8.1%). This is a very different allocation then when I woke up this morning (USD was @ -0.1% of G.Asset).

The move involves no particular risk in the short run since my base currency is HKD/USD, and should the USD bounce up for a last gasp, I am willing to send it back into the currency scrimmage.

Why do I get the feeling that this 2004 will not be easy ;0/

Yes, it may be time to run again, as we had before …

Message 15061631
<<December 20th, 2000

Survival strategy #1: run faster than the next guy, away from danger; and if you must panic, panic first. Kiss goodbye to the first 50% drop, as there is always another 50% to go yet.

… US assets, like any other assets, is just another trade, and as such, tradable, to be bought as well as sold.

… I am looking for that contra-cycle trade and having a hard time, really wanting to know what the great Soros is doing with his stash. Even as I am aware of the enormous overhang of Central Bank and private hoard of gold that is out there, I gravitate towards it, adding ever so little with each passing month. One thing can be said of gold – there is always liquidity for it. In the meantime am sinking under the weight of heavily appreciated platinum and are concerned about the declining auto sales and the increased mining output. Not a lot of places to run to when the entire arena becomes a frenzied killing place>>


... once on the high ground, hidden in the foliage, can then think about taking a look back towards the noise, through the scope of the rifle ;0)

Chugs, Jay

P.S. It wasn't so long ago, on another crimson night ...

Message 16037818
<<July 6th, 2001
It is mid-night here and I am up still, looking through the sniper scope, in silence. Chugs, Jay>>

Message 16037875
<<July 6th, 2001
Crimson tsunami. Commotion. People screaming for an emergency FED cut. Bureaucrats and gurus saying all is well, and that the low was in first half. More screaming. The killer hogs are about to be released into the crowd. I close my eyes. >>

Message 16037941
<<July 6th, 2001
No use for emergency cuts. Regular cuts will do as well; because the market has already discounted a zero percent policy in the planet's largest creditor country, and thus implicitly the market has already discounted at least another 250 basis points of cuts in the largest debtor country. The market has not yet discounted the collapse of the principal embedded in the few mega shares (GE, FNM, C), the debt market and the dollar.>>
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