I guess that TA, reduced to its bare essentials, does ultimately involve volume, price and a 3rd esssential, time. So what does this simplistic definition tell you? Nothing I can see. Point and figure charting uses the last 2 and people successfully trade with it. People still successfully use pattern recognition (head and shoulders, etc.) which use the above 3 elements. I can still get across town in a horse and buggy, but prefer to use a car. To each his own--whatever works for you--great! I understand TC2000 is a good data source and what limited tools it offers are good. As programs, Metastock for Windows and Windows on WallStreet are better--or at least offer many more Tools--but still have to get data somewhere. I use QuotesPlus--which may not currently be as good a d.p. as TC2K, especially since only 2 years of data are currently available. I am beta-testing QP2 which has 6 years data on all stocks and mutualfunds, has extensive fundamental data updated weekly, and ability to scan with fundamental and/or technical parameters. Awesome!
I'll skip over the manipulation debate--we could argue that forever--suffice it to say maybe I'm naive, but I'm just not quite that cynical. I submit that if manipulation was as pervasive as you say, then TA would be worthless because it depends on predictability, and if the market is totally manipulated, price and volume would be totally chaotic and random--the antithesis to predictability.
Here is the URL for Advanced GET--this takes you to an explanation of Elliot waves and GET's impulse waves. This is a comprehensive site--explore it for demo downloads, market predictions with charts, etc.
tradingtech.com
A GET thread is: Subject 8976
However it is for GET users, so if you dont have the software, doubt if it would be of much interest.
I dont have any fundamental worries--I really dont care about VVUS's fundamentals. What litle I know of VVUS fundamentals is that info I cant escape while reading the thread.<gg> If you got the impression that I think VVUS technicals aren't so bad--you have a totally wrong impression. VVUS has broken out of any standard deviaton trendine (starting from its low in mid-May) that you care to use: linear regression channels, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR. If you use a simple trendline and retain the July 1 low of 20, then VVUS is at the bottom of that trendline now. Throw out that abberation on July lst, and you get the same result as standard deviation channels.
Its now in an early Elliot Wave 3 (down), broke parabolic SAR a week ago, It's broken 2 major Gann lines depending on wht pivot you use. Since it has crossed below its 50DMA, any moving average crossover you use that is less than 50 days will have given a sell signal. ADX, -DI, +DI say sell, MACD like 12/25 says sell--on and on and on. What indicator do you see that is positive? The only thing that keeps me from selling it short is that it is so damn oversold--and the fact that it keeps falling in spite of being so oversold is pretty bearish in and of itself. Its chart looks grim--period.
"Persistent accumulation"?? By what method do you get this? The only acc/dist that I see as positive is Granville's OBV, and it peaked with the price peak mid-July and has been rapidly falling since. Given that VVUS price doubled in 2 months from mid-May to mid-July, of course Acc would be positive. Actually standard Acc/Dist shows a negative divergence--it was essentially flat while the stock doubled. I see nothing positive here. Chaikins money flow is flat, Markstein's A/D is very slightly positive, so nothing to brag about given the price doubling. Maybe TC2K 's BOP is positive? Dont have it , so dont know, but hear it's pretty good. If its positive here, I would question it at least in this instance.
Regards,
Gary |
