Tooearly,
Loantech was following a long-term roadmap I wrote out last year, which price-wise (though not time-wise) is a lot higher-confidence map (IMO) than the short-term map I posted recently to jims, which you provided the link for.
Funny how I got faked out by 1 HUI point on that top of the safety zone in my short-term map. I increased my PF 15% on the close above 241, then sold that 15% within the next couple days at a 3% loss when the HUI sank back. It looks now like it will keep sinking, bounces notwithstanding.
Where do I get the predicted low? Major pull-backs in the gold bull have equaled 50% of the prior move. The recent move started around 95 and went to roughly 255, so a 50% correction would be 175. Given the state of the dollar and the worldwide printathon now ongoing, presently I see this as a likely bottom. However, there is still a good chance that the scenario I gave Tom last year still pans-out.
The original prediction was that we would see a 50% correction of the gold bull, which started at (roughly) 45. That would say HUI=150 is in the cards. Interestingly, a 62% retrace of the recent move from 95 would yield HUI=155, which is essentially the same. I still give the odds on this scenario a pretty high 40%, though it would more likely come in the summer (August). In fact, a spring dip to the 175 area would make it more likely that HUI will see 155 in August, IMO.
Wave count for spring? How about these rough numbers, from the high: 255 to 215, 215 to 240, 240 to 180 (the present move), 180 to 210, 210 to 170 (180 and 170 ... close enough to a double-bottom of 175 for me). This could happen fast.
Hope this clarifies things.
Regards,
crusty |
