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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.97

-0.4%

1:45 PM EST

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To: JMarcus who wrote (10636)	2/26/2004 11:35:37 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) of 52153

Thanks, Marc - very interesting. I generally find myself in close agreement with Garren. Of the stocks he mentions, I own LGND (by now a fairly big holding for me) and small holdings in GENR and NABI and CRXL. The hedgehog stuff is indeed interesting - but hard to value CRIS. His Canadian ideas are also interesting - I'm keeping a close eye on Anormed as one example. Greatest fault for him is selling too soon because he sees something down the road that could be a problem but the larger market doesn?t see it. One of his biggest mistakes was selling MOGN early for no reason that I ever understood. That wasn't a case of him being too early - just of him being wrong. Here's what he said back in July '03: The big news for the small caps was the FDA?s broad approval of MGI Pharma?s (MOGN) palonosetron. I sold this company out of the Model Portfolio a while back on the fear that any glitch in the approval process, which was unlikely, would send the stock back to the low teens. Guess I?m getting a little more conservative--. MOGN now will have to execute on sales. They have about a two year window before Zofran goes generic. I think the easy money is out of this stock and from here on it will be dependent on whether the company meets sales expectations. They definitely have a better product and oncologist usually adapt to significant changes quickly. (stock was in the mid-30's when he wrote that, but quite a bit lower when he sold his MOGN). Message 19150853 (I also have a "too early" story. Back in the 80's when I was a tech investor I owned Novell - at that time the dominant PC network software. At that point MSFT didn't yet have a network product, and when they finally announced one I sold my Novell, figuring that MSFT would eventually dominate the market. Well I was right - but about five years or more to early. Novell went way up after I sold it as they continued to dominate for several more years until MSFT finally took over.)

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