Rumours fly amid renewed search for bin Laden
By MARINA JIMENEZ
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
A mountain of hackneyed Hollywood scripts have thrilling plots like this one:
U.S. Special Forces soldiers are monitoring Osama bin Laden's movements by satellite, waiting for the word to move in for a dramatic ''grab-and-go'' operation. They have narrowed the whereabouts of the world's most wanted man to several dozen square kilometres in a treacherous mountain region straddling the Pakistan-Afghan border. Pakistani troops are on the ground, threatening tribal leaders to either hand over the al-Qaeda fugitives they're known to harbour or see their homes blown up.
Except for the role played by Pakistani troops, the rest of the scenario is based on rumours. And it's not the first time the United States has reportedly been poised to capture the mastermind behind the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001.
But although it is difficult to know whether U.S. President George W. Bush's officials are really watching Mr. bin Laden by satellite, analysts say his capture is imminent this time.
"Sources in Pakistan have told us, 'We are very close to capturing Osama bin Laden,' " a diplomat said. "We have also heard these stories in the past. I think Osama bin Laden will be caught in June, when the snow melts in the mountains and it is easier for troops to go in. This would also give Bush maximum political advantage."
Officially, Pakistan and the United States say they have stepped up efforts to capture Mr. bin Laden by launching an aggressive operation against Taliban and al-Qaeda operatives hiding in Waziristan, the mountainous tribal area in Pakistan near the Afghan border.
"If we knew where Osama bin Laden was, we'd already have him," U.S. military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Matt Beevers said yesterday at a news briefing in Kabul. "We feel that, really, the sands in this guy's hourglass . . . are running out. We're going to continue . . . to present the leadership of al-Qaeda, the Taliban with impossible situations that they are not going to be able to get around, through, under or over."
The United States has redeployed troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, and Pakistan has sent thousands of troops to the tribal areas to root out militants. The moves would create a "hammer and anvil" effect, sealing the border and stopping militants from fleeing in either direction.
On Tuesday, hundreds of Pakistani troops launched a dramatic attack near Wana, in South Waziristan, about 300 kilometres southwest of Islamabad, and captured nearly 25 al-Qaeda and Taliban suspects. Yesterday, there were unconfirmed reports that among the captives is Khaled al-Zawahiri, son of al-Qaeda's No. 2 operative, Ayman al-Zawahiri. An Urdu-language newspaper in Pakistan said the man was handed over to U.S. custody and flown to American military headquarters north of Kabul. Officials denied the account.
Pakistan's army used helicopter gunships and artillery to level three housing compounds near Wana and seized weapons, ammunition, audio cassettes, documents and foreign passports.
"We hope that the investigations of the people who were arrested Tuesday will help to find clues about bin Laden," Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayyat told The Associated Press.
Col. Beevers welcomed the Pakistani operation and described co-operation between American and Pakistani forces as "outstanding."
Politically, Pakistan is under pressure from Washington to make the hunting of militants in the rugged frontier area a priority. South Waziristan has long been a sanctuary of Taliban and al-Qaeda fugitives who fled Afghanistan in 2001.
Central Intelligence Agency chief George Tenet made an unannounced trip to Islamabad this month to discuss the thorny issue of Taliban and al-Qaeda militants. Analysts say Washington used to its advantage the recent embarrassing revelations that Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, traded nuclear secrets with Libya, Iran and North Korea. This gave Washington an opportunity to press President Pervez Musharraf to go after foreign militants.
"The pressure on Pakistan is partly connected to the nuclear crisis," said Husain Haqqani, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former adviser to Pakistani prime ministers. "Pakistan got off easy about the fact that Dr. Khan sold nuclear secrets, and now the country has to prove its loyalty to the U.S. in another way."
Traditionally, Pakistan has not ventured into the mountainous and often treacherous tribal areas, although General Musharraf did send troops on a 2001 raid in which 500 mainly low-level al-Qaeda suspects were captured. The army has recently adopted a tactic of collective responsibility in the tribal areas, handing leaders a list of Pakistani men suspected of sheltering al-Qaeda members and telling them the entire tribe would be punished if they didn't hand them over.
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