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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (8725)2/26/2004 2:59:31 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
I do think we are seeing evidence of pretty robust credit and stimulus driven (but, not natural) economic activity, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. It will go away via two methods, singularly or in tandem; 1. Train Wreck and/or 2. Aggressive cooling off via monetary and fiscal policy. I agree that 2 won't work now as far as inflation, it's too late, but now they have a second problem: 3. defending the currency from a crack-up boom, or Flucht in die Sachwerte (flight into real goods). I do think they still may have time to head that off as the cannons haven't been brought out at all. There's barely time, cutting it very close, and the longer they wait, the more aggressive they will have to be in a few months. It's really a week by week thing in my mind. Will they do it? I'm inclined to yield to you on that one. We get your European rate cut instead, and it's Flucht in die Sachwerte time.
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