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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (8042)	2/26/2004 5:55:03 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 13403

OT: First on AD; The only mistake AD made was changing his trading strategy from 5000 share blocks of AMAT to 50,000. If he had covered only 5000 shares, at a loss, he would have never had to take such a long break drinking warm beer in the doghouse with his lady. Second on Cary; Cary has an admirable investment style but it is not the only investment style worth copying. There is room in any individual's portfolio for both long term and short term trading positions. Those positions should never be limited to as few as eight stocks all in the same related industry unless one is willing to play those positions both long and short because this has been and still remains a cyclical industry even if at times it appears to be a growth industry. Finally I believe that market timing is helpful in determining entries and exits and nothing I have seen the last few years has done anything to disprove that. For instance the SOX has bounced the last three days after penetrating its lower Bollinger Band and finding itself with an RSI below 40 again. It's not surprise to me, or anyone else here that uses technical analysis, that the index and its related stocks are trying to move higher. The market is not simply blown in one direction or another in random movements. While not wholly predictable it is increasingly easy for me to see emerging patterns and predict those that will ensue. As far as short term speculation as opposed to long term buy and hold? I hope we can all agree that the market is now a long way from the bottom it set in October 2002. It's a little harder to buy a stock long term and hold it now than it should have been then. One I might consider now would be MEDI since it appears to be basing after being beat up on the bad news that its Flumist was not selling as well as expected. Anyway, enough of my thoughts. Let me just say that I always enjoy your rationalizations but I believe that the best investment style here would be an amalgamation of all our styles. Invest long term in stocks you know well at the bottom of cycles as Cary tries to do and has done so well before. Invest in stocks in hot industries that are receiving increasing investor speculation near the beginning of such moves as you do. Speculate only with money you can afford to lose. Stay off margin like most of us already do here now. I know I could improve my own results by paying more attention to fundamentals while continuing to focus on technical and indicator analysis. Finally, I have charts available for virtually every major industry from StockCharts that anyone on this thread is welcome to use to help with market timing. Most stocks, not RGEN, tend to move with their associated industries both higher and lower. As always JMHO, RtS

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