Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: orkrious who wrote (799)	2/27/2004 9:38:42 AM
From: mishedlo	of 116555

Rising inventories Brian Reynolds The second estimate of 4th quarter GDP was revised up slightly from 4.0% to 4.1%. The Bloomberg consensus was looking for a slight downward revision to 3.8%. The primary cause of the revision was from the equipment and software sector, and from inventories. Inventories in particular looked to be higher than most economists had been expecting. We have been writing for several months about how inventories have been picking up steam as production has begun to outstrip consumption. We still think this augurs for at least a moderation in production in the months ahead, and we have started to see some preliminary indication of that from orders. So, all eyes will turn to the February Chicago PMI that comes out at 10:00 EST to see if the slowdown in car sales is impacting auto manufacturing. The GDP release was pretty much a non-event for the bond market; the 10-year Treasury was fluctuating in a narrow range at just shy of up 1/4 point on the day.

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