KEEP IT SIMPLE TRADING Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : KEEP IT SIMPLE TRADING

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To: mistermj who started this subject	2/27/2004 5:31:10 PM
From: mistermj	of 321

posted on Trader-Talk... You're right- the COMPX has pieced together.. (drum roll please) .. SIX CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY LOWER CLOSES!! Throughout the past, oh, twenty or so years the COMPX has closed lower for six or more consecutive weeks only FIVE times- including the current run. Other periods: 6 consecutive weeks - the week of 08/24/90 - which was the lead in to the brief bear market relating to the early 90s recession. 6 consecutive weeks - the week of 10/13/00 - which was the lead in the most vicious bear market since the great depression. 7 consecutive weeks - the week of 03/16/01 - which came in at the end of the FIRST leg lower in the recent bear market. 6 consecutive weeks - the week of 10/04/02, which came in at the end of the FINAL leg lower of the recent bear market. So only one time prior, over the past twenty years, has the COMPX put in MORE than 6 consecutive lower weekly closes. And it has only done 6 weeks three additional times. The sample size is total 1012 weeks. The odds are slim that the COMPX will put in a additional weekly lower close (next week) though it has happened one other time in the past.

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