OJ,
Here is a stream of random thoughts. First I am not a market timer but a picker of individual stocks and sectors regardless of the short-term context of the market.
Having said that, I concur with TT that we are seeing an intermediate top. TT has been 4-6 weeks early in the past when he cashes out of the market, but this time TT slowed the process down to 10 percent per week ... so the top may be here. I posted that when ABX and NEM complete their double bottom that the markets will be vulnerable. That after earnings there will be nothing else to fuel the rise and uncertainty will set in .. and we know how uncertainty affects the market. Blowoff may very well occur upon DELL earnings. The market will not go straight down and any retrace up should be used to exit short-term options, until the market bottoms and stablizes.
What is not clear is whether we are entering a consolidation phase or the start of a 33 percent pullback over the next four months.
BAY got a number of upgrades this month. Next quarter's report will be good. The blocks will come again by the end of September. Take profits now and reenter later. Or if the market/stock tank, sell the Jan 30p to make a full synthetic. This way if the stock goes up you still are in it and you have a repair strategy if it tanks. I need to decide myself if I want to spread against my calls, do a synthetic, or just take profits. It's all a market call.
Given proper stock selection, leaps are worth what you pay. I often hear that leap prems are expensive. Don't think those holding INTC, DELL, MSFT, or AMAT leaps would say so today. A shame that I let my AMAT leaps go when the stock was 55ish.
Jer, you've been changing your mind twice a day. Just let me know when things gel. |
