re: personal risk assessment:
1. risks that have low probability of a very bad outcome, are impossible to do any rational cost-benefit analysis. We always decide those kind of questions, by falling back on unstated assumptions, or fears.
2. We are far less tolerant, of risks that are not under our personal control. 40,000 Americans die each year in auto accidents, but nobody would fly, if 40,000 airline passengers were dying each year. That's because we feel we have control over the risk of driving our car, while the risk of flying is under the control of some other anonymous idiot. So we insist on a far lower risk, from airplanes.
The risk of dying from an anthrax terrorist attack, is under someone else's control, and is high-damage/low probability. So, we won't accept any appreciable risk, but can't rationally figure out what that risk is. |
