Larry, My 7 month forecast of MU trading pattern, based on the past 13 years, and disregards any fundamentals, Kurlak touts, etc.is below. The stock has had a definite pattern, regardless of earnings, etc. over the past 13 years.
Sept low after earnings, 29-33
4th qtr low of 17-25
1st qtr 1998 high of 50-60.
There is support at about
40 (forget it! may break it Monday morning)
33 (major)
29 (major)
25 (minor)
21 (minor)
17 (very major)
My Sept estimate is based on the past 11 years averaging a 35.5% decline from the 2nd quarter high. This year, the second qtr high was 44.38 and a 35.5% decline from that would be 28.6. The 3rd quarter low has been lower than the 2nd qtr high in every year, and we already are lower this year, for 12 years in a row. Since there is major support at 33 and 29, I'm calling it to be either 29 or 33.
My 4th qtr low estimate of 17-25 is based on the past 11 years, whereas, the 4th qtr low has been lower than the 1st qtr high 10 of 11 years, and an average of 51.7% decline. A 51.7% decline from the 45.25 high in the first qtr. would be 21.9. Since there is minor support at 25 and 21, and major support at 17, my range is 17-25.
My 1st qtr 98 estimate of 50-60 is based on the past 13 years, whereas, every year, the 1st qtr high (before the 3rd Fri in March), has been higher than the 4th qtr low by 122% An increase of 122% over 22 would be about 55, but there will be resistance at 50 and 60, plus I don't know what the 4th qtr bottom will actually be. I'll know that in Dec, and have a revised projection for 1st qtr target high.
I will buy Sept puts this week, roll into Oct puts following the earnings report, Jan calls in the 4th qtr., with heaviest purchases in December. and during mid Jan, roll into Mar calls.
Noone flame me please, unless you give me your projections for Sept low, 4th qtr low, and 1st qtr high, and backed with some reason to support it. I've stuck my neck out and giving out the results of my research. Don't give me a Grimmer comment like "it's going to 70" without support of the comment.
Both bulls and bears can benefit from this data, so if you are sitting on the fence, maybe this will be of help.
Pete Mooney, you Jan puts should be OK!
Patrick |
