SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: rubed who wrote (8881)2/27/2004 10:16:31 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
I've made more in gold plays that just about anything. But, it's a hard vehicle to understand and get a grip on. The one factor that gold really needed and needs is the exchange traded funds (ETF). If there had been a liquid, heavily traded ETF around in the 2H of 03, I think price of gold (POG) would now be $450 and we wouldn't even being worrying about hot hedge funds and stale specs being blown out of long positions. I think an ETF would be promoted by the "gold community" pretty heavily. We'd be talking about it here all the time, I bet.

Of course the demand is because every dollar that enters an ETF would buy real physical gold, and real (as opposed to paper and futures) gold is a much smaller market than most people realize. A few billion bucks would go a long ways. An ETF would have absorbed billions of the "cash is trash" that has found it's way into the stock and junk markets. In fact that's why it's been killed so far IMO.

If you had the liquid ETF and the inflation or worse a Flucht in die Sachwerte (flight to real goods), then POG would go completely parabolic. But without the ETF, I just don't think most people will do much more than dabble in a few gold shares and at most buy a few bars or coins. That's true even in places like China, which really hasn't absorbed that much product. Still, I see gold setting up for a good trade, which I may pursue though my futures commodity account. In a crack-up boom phase you can bet that POG will really run regardless. I'm just not sure how most would buy it directly without the ETF? Would they line up with billions at gold dealers? I doubt it.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News