Ann, I posted the following addressed to you on the Kerry thread. I guess you ignoredit. So I am posting it here.
Message 19854826
Posted on Thu, Feb. 26, 2004
Edwards would have uphill fight carrying N.C. on ballot, poll says
By ANNA GRIFFIN
Knight Ridder Newspapers
CHARLOTTE, N.C. - John Edwards is now John Kerry's main competitor for the Democratic presidential nomination - and the favorite of many Democrats nationwide to be Kerry's vice president - but he suffers surprising political weakness in his home state of North Carolina.
Last month, Massachusetts Senator Kerry was overheard slamming Edwards to an aide: "Edwards says he's the only one who can win states in the South. He can't win his own state."
Is Edwards, who lost neighboring Virginia and Tennessee to Kerry in primaries earlier this month, weak in North Carolina? And if so, does that reduce his potential appeal for the national ticket?
The answer to the first question is a qualified yes. Edwards offended many North Carolina Democrats by the way he first won his Senate seat, and how he's now failing to defend it.
Opinion in North Carolina splits on the second question, but a new poll suggests that Edwards would have an uphill fight carrying his home state regardless of whether he was running for president or vice president.
Recent polls show that President Bush would wallop Edwards in North Carolina in a one-on-one contest. A new Elon University poll of North Carolinians found that if Edwards were the nominee for vice president, 1 in 4 respondents would be more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket - but close to 6 in 10 said Edwards' presence in the No. 2 spot wouldn't change their votes.
Still, some North Carolina party pros would bet on Edwards.
"Success begets success," said Scott Falmlen, executive director of the state party. "I don't have any doubt that if Senator Edwards were on the ticket, either as number one or number two, he would carry North Carolina."
Yet Edwards left many Carolina Democrats miffed from the start.
Before giving up his legal practice to run for the U.S. Senate in 1998, Edwards had never volunteered for a political campaign, and he voted only half the time. Then, instead of wooing Democratic donors, he spent $6 million of his own money to beat incumbent Lauch Faircloth, a Republican, eking out 51 percent of the vote. And instead of surrounding himself with veteran state politicos, he hired a few top advisers, then let them go after the campaign.
Barely two years after winning his Senate seat, Edwards was being mentioned as Al Gore's possible running mate. Then, still in his first term, he decided to run for president and chose not to run for re-election to the Senate.
Privately, state Democratic insiders say Edwards made their job harder next fall by opting not to defend his Senate seat. His decision to run for president instead leaves the state Democratic Party in a tough fight against Republican U.S. Rep. Richard Burr, who the Bush administration hand-selected for the race.
"I know a lot of folks here are much more worried about winning that seat again than they are with who our presidential nominee turns out of be," said Andy Foreman, the chairman of the Pitt County Democratic Party. "A lot of folks feel like maybe he should have stayed in the Senate longer."
Other Carolinians resent Edwards' ambition.
"I voted for Edwards for the Senate because I thought he was better than Lauch. But it feels like he was just using that to run for president," said Del Morris, 52, a Wake County voter who described himself as a "Reagan Democrat."
Some of the anger toward Edwards, his supporters say, is jealousy over a guy who never had to pay political dues.
"He's not one of the bluebloods of the party and he's not one of the chosen ones, so you hear occasionally from the naysayers," said Sen. Martin Nesbitt, a Democrat from Asheville, N.C. "But you give me that homeboy on the ticket in November, and we'll do just fine."
There's also the familiarity-breeds-contempt factor.
Mecklenburg County homemaker Sabrina Winston, 42, is an Edwards supporter. She says she hears grumbling from other parents when she picks her children up at school.
"They see my Edwards bumper sticker, and they roll their eyes," she said. "I think they're just a little tired of seeing him on TV and in the paper."
North Carolinians haven't supported a Democratic presidential nominee since Jimmy Carter. If Kerry heads the ticket and wants a running mate who can guarantee him at least one Southern state, political scientists say he might do better with Florida Sen. Bob Graham or former Louisiana governor and Sen. John Breaux. They're enormously popular in their home states.
But beating the Bush ticket in the vice presidential nominee's home state isn't the only point, says Ferrel Guillory, the director of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life.
"North Carolina is a Republican-leaning state and has been since the beginning of the 1980s. The Democrats aren't likely to win here no matter what. But somebody like John Edwards would make it competitive," Guillory said. "He would force Bush to defend his base. Otherwise, Karl Rove will take his $130 million and pour it into a battleground state like Michigan."
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