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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (8889)2/28/2004 8:47:55 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
<On a more serious note, do you really think it will matter?.>

Actually a fair question, but I'm proceeding on the theory that market's aren't yet 100% rigged by Wizards or subject entirely to the smoke and mirror ploy. I guess the debate is are they 50% rigged, 70%, and I'm not sure which, and that's the risk I take.

I would highly recommend that you sit down some weekend (soon I'd say) and read James Grant's book, "The Trouble with Prosperity". Grant writes as well as anybody about the dangers of moral hazard. Having read (and recently reread) the book myself, I would have to characterize your question, "Do you think it matters?", as extreme moral hazard. It sort of reveals that you (and nearly everybody else) are willing to bet heavily on the implied and presumed promises of the Wizards. I'm just saying that shit happens (actually my theory is LOTS of shit), and that the crowd is now seriously offside.
Message 19858068

So in effect, I'm trying as best I can to get positioned for when the game finally gets refereed (the implication of the terrific Roach open letter) and the "inflation wake up call" penalty flags get thrown up all over the field. I think that's (the wake up call) where the big returns will come from in the 2004 Train Wreck, and not from trying to scalp a few extras basis points on Eurodollar longs (a Wizard moral hazard trade IMO).
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