Actually a fair question, but I'm proceeding on the theory that market's aren't yet 100% rigged by Wizards or subject entirely to the smoke and mirror ploy. I guess the debate is are they 50% rigged, 70%, and I'm not sure which, and that's the risk I take.
Why do you call it rigged?
They have said what they were doing and why. Back in January I did not think they could be more clear. I started playing this stuff back in September when they first started talking about jobs. They have reiterated that message probably 5 time since then, but no one seems to listen. What they are doing does NOT have to make sense. That's the beauty of it all. I firmly believe that until we see some evidence of job increases, several months in a row, that nothing is going to happen. I have said this before and I will repeat it. Jobs suck, they will continue to suck, and the FED is too stupid to see that thay can not get jobs to un-suck no matter what they do. It is mind boggling to me that they can not see that their effors will not produce jobs other than in China and India.
I also believe you are ignoring several things
1) Rising inventories
2) Chicago PMI near all time high and inventories rising. Where is it going from here?
3) Tightening of money in China. This takes time to work its way thru. We are not going to see that impact in 1-2 weeks. It might take 3 months.
4) Europe economy is very weak. Growth is low and so is inflation. Now you might scoff at that idea but remember they are buying stuff in Euros and inflation is indeed far lower over there in all liklihood.
5) I talked about this at length above but failed to mention the only reason unemployment is lower is that this game is indeed 100% rigged. People are dropping off the rolls like mad so rate goes down. Look at the idiots in Washington talking about reclassifying McDonalds's jobs as manufacturing! Did you see that? Bush actually proposed it. Man these guys are desperate. Why did Snow, Bush, and the labor Secretary all drop the promise of jobs? Why? Because jobs suck that's why and they will continue to suck. If they come up with some BS jobs number next moth I probably will not believe it. You do not believe their CPI lies, why should either of us believe employment lies? Seriously. How hard did they have to fudge Dec to get jobs at +1,000? They want +250,000 a month and managed +1,000. That is damn pathetic don't you think?
6) Auto sales suck. Totally. Not a good sign. I sense consumer exhaustion and rates are already at 0%. What next for an encore?
7) Consumer sentiment. Totally "unexpected" huge drop. When consumers lose confidence they stop spending. Why are they losing confidence? Jobs!
Mish |
