Another Mauldin snip followed by comments:
Bill King sent this tidbit my way: "The Kansas City Star's Diane Stafford noticed something in a new Bureau of Labor Statistics report. "Employers initiated more mass layoff actions in January than in any previous January in the nine-year history of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' mass layoff record keeping...The higher counts were contrary to a general downward trend over the past year for both the number of mass layoff actions - defined as those affecting at least 50 workers at a single work site - and the number of initial jobless claims resulting from the actions...For January 2004, there were 2,428 mass layoff actions nationally, affecting 239,454 workers. In comparison, January 2003 recorded 2,315 actions, affecting 225,430 workers." How can this occur with that monstrous stimulus last year? Guess what happens without the juice? "Manufacturing accounted for more than one-third of the layoffs nationally - 35 percent of the events and 37 percent of the individual unemployment claims....The government sector set a five-year record for the number of workers filing for unemployment in the month. Another sector that reported a higher number of initial claimants because of mass layoffs was the temporary help sector." Two of the leading engines of job creation last year, government and temps, are now in jettison mode. No wonder consumer confidence has collapsed. As Seinfeld says, "That can't be good."
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Comments from Splotto on my board on the FOOL
This might truly be the leading sign of the slip back into recession.
There have been many comments on how the employment creation had been skewed by the number of government hirings. If that has reversed, then that is one bad point.
However, the temp job sign is more serious. Temp workers are a clear leading indicator to hiring. If they are slipping away now, we may see a serious reversal into a contracting economy.
Splotto |
