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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (8947)	2/28/2004 8:17:16 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

<MODELS ARE HOPELESS!> The new chairman pretty much dismissed data based models, saying they are inaccurate and subject to revision. <You really expect the FED to pull a surprise after telling people to get variable rate loans?> Very faulty analysis, the "Fed" didn't say that at all, the outgoing chairman Easy Al suggested it, in fact Easy said lots of "off the wall" things last week. IMO the bit on SS was a set up for the push Bush (and Feldstein) will make on some version of SS reform and privatization IF Bush gets reelected. <That is not the nature of this fed. We have yet see a bias change..> Gonna rock your world, won't it? They've signaled jobs as the biggie, even though I doubt if inflation is totally being ignored. You will get the justification for the token 25 bps raise on Friday with the jobs report. Then will it really be a surprise? Not really. And if I'm right I'll win big, if I'm off, things will be status quo (and straight into the Train Wreck, delayed a month on a rate increase). That's what's great about market's that are badly offside.

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