The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (8917)	2/28/2004 10:15:51 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) of 110194

<<<Is there anyone that thinks the FED is NOT hiking next year. Anyone?>>> I think the Fed will not hike this and next years. I have a scenario in my sick mind about how the beginning of a credit bubble implosion will look like. My main idea is that something has to cause a slowdown in Real Estate. Right now RE provides both high employment (good wages in construction, mortgages etc) and a supplemental income on as needed basis (home equity). Strong RE is also a big reason for high consumer confidence. Slowdown in RE will kill just about everything. After that bad debt and asset deflation will take hold for years. Yields will fall but it won't help RE which already will be in a free fall. What might cause RE slowdown? It could be ongoing wage deflation or bonds geting spooked by Russ' Train Wreck causing surge in mortgage rates. Now, where is my Prozac? Did you see my Prozac? -VBG-

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