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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry
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To: ChinuSFO who started this subject2/29/2004 11:33:46 AM
From: CalculatedRiskRead Replies (3) of 81568
 
A very early look at the electoral votes. Obviously anything can happen ... NOTE: Electoral votes have been reallocated since the 2000 census.

States solidly for Bush: 181 votes
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Dakota 3
North Carolina 15
Oklahoma 7
South Dakota 3
South Carolina 8
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
Wyoming 3

States solidly for Kerry: 183 votes
California 55
Connecticut 7
DC 3
Delaware 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

States leaning towards Bush: 88 votes
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Missouri 11
Ohio 20
West Virginia 5

States leaning towards Kerry: 86 votes
Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5 -Bush carried in 2000, but recent polls show Kerry ahead due to environmental issues.
New Hampshire 4 - Bush carried in 2000, but Kerry leads by 18% in recent polls.
New Mexico 5
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

This gives a 269 vote tie! Of course, Bush wins a tie.

NOTES: Recent polls show VP Edwards does not bring a single state to the ticket. But VP Evan Bayh would bring the traditionally Republican state of Indiana to Kerry.

It really appears this election will be decided in the midwest / rust belt states.
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