Dell's Daytraders Decision Site Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Dell's Daytraders Decision Site

DELL 146.68

-1.7%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Craig Schilling who wrote (9)	8/16/1997 6:36:00 PM
From: Craig Schilling	of 1124

Not time for a long term short yet. One month ago I thought Monday would be a perfect time to short Dell. However, the only negative I can find at this time is the slow down in money flow. Technically, the stock is not overbought and the MACD is turning up again. Earnings growth is continuing to grow at over 100% if they come in at .58 or higher which I think they'll easily meet and they continue to go higher on a sequential basis. The slow down in earnings will not happen until the 3rd or 4th quarter if you look at the estimates so you will not see more than a $8 to $10 dollar pull back at best. Additionally, there are too many short the stock all ready which is very bullish if the momentum players come in heavy on the buy side. Better to short the high PE stocks in the Dow right now. We all know growth is slowing the question to be answered is how far ahead will the market react to this slow down while still paying for a PE in the mid 40 range? Looks to me like the time to short may be in the 3rd quarter because the comparisons will be a lot higher. On the other hand if we are slowing to a growth rate this quarter that was similar to last years 3rd quarter than maybe the stock should be trading around a similar price. Now lets say we double that price because of the market mania and the love for Dell we get a price of $30 or so which is $60 presplit. So what's one to do? Earnings Growth Rates Q4 97 .65* Q4 96 .51 27% Q3 97 .59* Q3 96 .39 51% Q2 97 .54* Q2 96 .29 86% Q1 97 .54- Q1 96 .21 157% Q4 96 .51- Q4 95 .18 183% Q3 96 .39- Q3 95 .19 105% Q2 96 .29- Q2 95 .17 70% *First Call Estimates Best of luck to all,Craig

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