The last DTS wage and salary number came in today light. It was weird this month because there was a whole series of solid gains, and then this important last day was a 1000 plus drop. For Feb (same number days) the number 117,213 versus 115,969 last year. So I'd say the consensus labor number of 150,000 job gain will be about right, I think there will be a bit of an upward revision for Jan. Really though when you consider last Feb. was when the country was worked up over the war, to be here a year later, with all this stimulus and now a Train Wreck,and have only a 1.07% yoy increase in W&S is pretty piss poor. And going forward no tax relief to offset inflation.
The consumer is obviously in trouble, looks like the tax refunds are lower than expected (apparently lower mortgage deductions), and she has a food and energy subsistence squeeze coming on. Will need the whole tax refund just to pay March's gasoline bill. But, I expect him to borrow what they need through ARMs, home equity, credit cards, whatever it takes, and that will continue fuel enough demand to finish this next and final phase of the Train Wreck and inflationary shock.
China's policy will be the ball to watch on all this. Their actions will kick off the rate backups and the next wave of US inflation. The CAN NOT afford to absorb these enormous input cost increases and then sell to us at a loss. It will have to be pay it USA Wal Mart or good-bye, but the product won't be available in the US.
Dared to listen to a little CNBC an they were gushing over the 56 employment number on ths ISM. Hardly a mention of the inflationary 81.5 prices number, or the obvious bottleneck look to the report: terrible fanancial reporting. |
