Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way

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To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (436)	3/2/2004 11:35:53 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (1) of 469

Thanks for the comprehensive analysis. I used figures a bit more conservative than yours, because I don't know the company at all -- 16% growth (I seldom like to go over 15% because it's hard for a company to sustain growth over 15% for the long haul), and PEs of 27 (average PE after taking 2000 as an outlier) and 14.8 (average low after taking 2000 as an outlier). That gave me $3.49 5th year earnings. I used 13.2 as the estimated low, which is the average 5 year low. (Actually 4 year; they don't divide by 5 because Toolkit recognizes the no data for 1999). I also used 25/50/25 for my zoning. On those numbers, I'm in the very low hold zone, with an upside/downside of 2.8. But I suspect that if I studied the stock I would become more comfortable with numbers that aren't quite as severely conservative. Anyhow, I'll take a better look at it in the next couple of days. And I'm glad we have some action on this thread at lasst!

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