You're assuming that there would be no replacement for the oil. That's not what's being proposed.
1 - Almost any replacement for oil also results in CO2 emissions. Nuclear power doesn't but its expensive, unpopular and won't easily replace things like the gasoline used in cars.
Solar doesn't.....wind farms don't.....hydro doesn't.
2 - Even if there was a perfect replacement fuel it would be expensive to develop a new infrastructure for it.
Yes, that's true. Life's a b*tch.....there's not much I can do about that.
It was the end of the Roman Republic and the disappearance of representative government on earth for almost 1,700 years, until the English Civil Wars in the 1600s. That is the reality we are confronting today—offering up our democracy in propitiation to an Empire for Oil.
Nonsense.
You just made the argument up above. Without oil, we're dead in the water
1 - What I quoted and called nonsense was that the US was becoming something like the Roman empire.
Of course not........that will happen when the oil gets short. For now, we're still looking good. That's why we need to start moving our butts now.
2 - Oil won't disappear quickly. If you ignore the up and down volatility its likely to gradually go up in price (in inflation adjusted dollars). As it goes up people make adjustments to consume less oil.
Yeah, really? What are they going to do if there is no alternative. Over time, the problem will move with increasing speed. Before we have a shortage of oil, there will be a huge run up in prices and economic dislocation. If we don't start moving away from oil now, we risk a world wide depression.
What do you think will happen when shortages develop?
The price goes up, which causes demand to go down and increases the supply of substitute sources.
And so, we will shut down the factories and offices and stop driving cars. Tons of people will be thrown out of work. Where will we get the substitute fuels if we don't develop them now?
What do you think brought down other civilizations?
All sorts of different things.
Really? Like what?
Do you really believe we are invincible?
I think we are not becoming an imperial monarchy or a dictatorship.
That does not answer my question.
How long do you think you would stay solvent if YOU had a severe drug dependency?
There are more differences then similarities between a drug dependency and our need for oil.
There is one similarity.......we need oil like the druggie needs ecstasy or heroin.
An addict often takes drugs that cause him harm or even death.
Trust me, oil is harming us......its screwing up everyone's lungs including your own.
It might harm us if oil gets more expensive but using the oil is helping us not harming us.
Are you really this simple?
Also we use oil because it makes economic sense to use oil not because we have an actual addiction to it. If the price of a drug goes up a lot the addict will still want it. If tin 50 years the real price of oil is 10 times as high as it is now then we will use less oil. If the price of oil reached and stayed at or above 1.5 to 2 times what it is now then a lot of alternative fuel sources start to make sense.
"Start to make sense" is too late to prevent an economic disaster.
I think the best and most efficient way to adjust to changes in supply and demand of fuels and energy sources is to let the market sort it out. Its likely to do a better job then the government.
Yeah, that's what conservatives said before the stock market crash of 1929.
ted |
